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Economists have come up with different ingenious proposals to circumvent the zero point and regain central banks’ firepower. In the 19th century, Silvio Gesell proposed a tax on holding cash. In 2009, Greg Mankiw suggested a lottery scheme for randomly picking serial numbers on bank notes and declaring them void, making it risky to hold on to cash. In 2021, Kenneth Rogoff explained that if we could just phase out cash altogether, there would be no alternative to paying a negative rate on bank deposits and bonds. And there are other proposals, too.
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Setting interest rates to below zero is often viewed as an unconventional policy, but it can actually be seen as a continuation of the perfectly normal monetary policy practice of moving the short-term interest rate in response to fluctuations in the economy. There is a limit to how low interest rates can go, but it turns out that this limit is not zero and we have not reached it yet.
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Cuts to below zero have led to a widespread fall in interest rates throughout the economies that have used them, in the same way that rate cuts do in positive territory. The exception here is the transmission through banks. Click here for a detailed explanation, but for now, here’s the short one.
Cuts to below zero so far have been tiny. Japan’s recent rate cut into negative territory, for instance, was from a positive 0/05% to a negative 0/10%. The Swiss central bank cut its rate to 0/75% below zero. Most of us would barely notice an interest-rate reduction of 0/15% on our deposit account, and securing a bank loan for 0/75% less wouldn’t make many of us rush out to buy new cars. To really boost an economy with an interest rate cut, central banks normally do a lot more.
By comparison, the US central bank cut the interest rate from about 6% down to about 1% during the relatively mild US recession in 2001, and again by 5% in response to the global financial crisis in 2008. It would, in fact, have cut a lot more in 2008 and 2009 if the interest rate had not already reached zero, which was thought to be the lower bound.
It was widely believed that if interest rates did dip below zero, even if by a very small amount, everyone with savings would run to the bank to change them for ready money. The zero interest rate on cash was seen as the lowest point an interest rate could dip to, the point at which central banks would be out of ammunition.
Since the global financial crisis, keeping an eye on market prices, signs of exuberance and excessive financial risk-taking has become part and parcel of conducting monetary policy in response to negative shocks to the economy. Central banks can respond to signs of financial instability in different ways, depending on their mandates and toolkit. Some central banks may be able to regulate risk-taking directly (so-called macroprudential measures), while others don’t have that authority. Others question whether such policies are enough, and call for central banks to raise interest rates in the face of stability risks. But increasing interest rates before the economy has returned to growth obviously risks delaying the return to growth.
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Central banks hold money for commercial banks. If the interest rate is cut below zero, it means that they, the central banks, can charge the commercial banks interest on that money. The commercial banks, meanwhile, can cut the interest rate that they charge their customers by the same amount and make their money back; although there are some crucial exceptions for some bank deposits, which we discuss later.
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There is no evidence that savers as a whole suddenly react in this new way to interest rate cuts into negative territory, however. The fact is that for every saver in an economy, there is someone on the other side borrowing this money. Think of new house owners with high mortgages and car loans, start-up companies – or even the government. The increased purchasing power of borrowers due to negative interest rates might easily make up for the supposed frugality of retirees and other savers, as explained here.
Supply-side reforms, ideally combined with fiscal policies, can also help to make economies more competitive and productive by improving the functioning of markets, upgrading educational systems, building critical infrastructure and unleashing entrepreneurship and innovation. Such measures will increase the potential for future growth. If this is understood – and believed – by the public, it could also increase confidence here and now, boosting spending and growth.
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Throughout history, it was widely believed that central banks could not move short-term interest rates below zero. After all, why would anyone pay to deposit money in a bank or pay to lend someone money, when they could just keep their cash at home for free? Cash always has a zero interest rate.
There are various ways and tools to limit this risk. The central bank can stand ready to help banks that lose deposits, and central banks can limit the distribution of cash – but such ideas are controversial and politically problematic. At the very least, reaching the lower bound is likely to force the central bank to increase interest rates again.
The most important concern when it comes to negative interest rates is that we do not know at which point people, corporations or financial institutions will want to sell all their bonds and bank deposits and demand cash instead. We don’t know where the lower bound is, and inadvertently reaching this point could be bad for the trust and smooth functioning of the financial system.
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The example of Switzerland suggests that interest rates can go at least as low as -0/75% without triggering a large demand for cash. Views have been voiced on where the effective lower bound might be and what it depends on. But in the end, we still do not know; no country has reached this point, and it remains unknown just how much further interest rates can be cut before we see a broad shift into cash.
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Some have argued that in countries with ageing populations, incentives to spend will fall on deaf ears. Faced with negative interest rates, savers and retired people who live off their pensions could be more likely to reduce their spending, because they either have fixed savings targets or because they live off the interest from their capital.
If you want to buy bananas, for example, and bananas cost $1 now but will increase to $1/03 in a year because of 3% inflation, and your $100 in the bank pays no nominal interest rate, then after a year you’ll only be able to buy 97 bananas; your real interest rate is -3%. Inflation in this case amounts to a negative real interest rate.
Approximately the same is true for all other European nations
The kind of interest rate we’re all familiar with is called a nominal interest rate. It measures the amount of money we earn in a year on a saving of $100. A real interest rate, on the other hand, measures how much the $100 is worth in terms of what you can buy with it a year later.
And yet – some feel that their savings are taxed by negative nominal interest rates in Switzerland, while few feel “taxed” by the negative real interest rates in the US. The reason that negative nominal rates seem so controversial is because of so-called money illusion. The public generally doesn’t distinguish between nominal and real interest rates, and tends to perceive only negative nominal interest rates as relevant for the value of their savings.
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